ECOWAS has played itself to the corner with its threat of war against the Nigerien junta. They have drawn the battle line in an affair they should have mediated and managed with caution. If they back down, they will lose face and credibility. They will be seen as toothless bulldogs by other Russian prompted would be juntas who are considering ceasing power in other African countries. The same can be said of the coup plotters who have sworn times over that they will defend every inch of their country against outside interference. Can they and for how long before they replace France with Russia and China in their quest for true independence?
Africa has become the new play ground in the fight of dominance and supremacy between the Western block and the Russia-China alliance. The brutal Russia backed Wagner militias has been disrupting the stability of countries on the continent for a while now, strategically helping rogues to topple democratically elected government in exchange for brutal and unhindered access to Africa's resources. From choice metals like gold, to hard stones like diamond. Now, uranium in Niger. In all of these, you see the hands of Putin achieving several goals with its Wagner backed war machine. Diminish or completely remove Western influence in this countries and get rich doing so.
Five out of six nations that have experienced coup in Africa since the pandemic were former French colonies - Guniea, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, Sudan and now Niger. This speaks to the failure of the French policies in Africa, especially in their former colonies that they continue to hold hostage and milk with wicked impunity. Now, the chicken has come home to roost. Franc currency, 100% of their foreign reserve in France, dumping sites for French goods, perpetuation of dictators who answer their bid in office. This has created the strongest anti-French sentiment in most Francophone countries. France is not ready to let go because of free resources they have been draining from their former colonies for well over a century unabated. Russia has seized on this and it is propping up opposition against France and its allies in many Francophone countries.
Africa is caught in the middle of this fight. Many wonder why many African countries were quiet and did not criticize Russia when it invaded Ukraine. How can they, when Russia hold many of them in the jugular. Food has become a weapon Russia is using to silence African leaders. Not long after Russia through out the agreement to allow Ukrainian grains to be shipped through the Black sea, mostly to African countries, it called African leaders to Moscow and at the same time another Russian backed coup was taking place in Niger.
The West is propping Nigeria to lead the intervention in Niger. If President Tinubu wants to do good by his people, he will think twice. Nigeria is going through a difficult period of economic turmoil where 99% of its revenue is used to service debt. Nigeria is broke. Where will Nigeria get the money to prosecute a war in this situation without declaring bankruptcy? Nigeria is yet to win the fight against a handful of terrorists in Sambisa forest, how will it will win in Niger with its corrupt approach to everything-anything? What is our strategic gain other than the fear the coup-syndrome could spread to Nigeria? If Tinubu does not follow the paths of thieves and incompetent leaders before him, he needs not worry.
A war in Niger, is a war in West Africa and Africa for a foreseeable future. The devastation will be unimaginable. The Malian and Burkinabe juntas have vowed to come to the aid of their Nigerien counterparts. Invariably, the Russian Wagner group and in some way, the Russian government. Can West Africa afford a war at this time with all its woes and troubles that includes youth unemployment, severe economic downturn, fight against terrorism, banditry, etc? Perhaps, it's better for ECOWAS leaders to lose face than start a war they can't win..
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