In the last 15 years, over 1 billion people were taken out of poverty because of the intentional effort of UN and countries where poverty was endemic like India. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, countries below the Sahara desert like Nigeria, poverty has increased within the same period. Nigeria has taken the first place from India as the country home to the poorest of the poor. How did this happen? Should Buhari continue to blame the previous administrations or it needs to carefully look inward? Here is my take.
Buhari's failed economic policies created millions of poverty-stricken Nigerians (87 million people strong) in a space of few months that he became the president. If you live below $2.10 a day, UN classifies you as living below the poverty line. There are over 87 million Nigerians living on less than $1.90 a day (which equals (< N20k a month), this made Nigeria number one among countries home to the poorest of the poor. How did this come by? Let us use what became of the minimum wage as an example of what resulted in the aftermath of the free fall of the naira in the wake of Buhari's taking the mantle of leadership in 2015. Pre-Buhari, N18,000 minimum wage would exchange for $109.09 at N165 to $1. Prorate this amount per day in a month, it is $3.64/day (assuming you are single, it was just enough to live by). Many iya alata, hawkers, pure water seller, eleja didin (fried fish seller), etc. do not make more than this in a month. With the devaluation of the naira, the same person earning N18,000 now has $50 purchasing power in a month at N360 to $1 exchange rate. That is $1.67/day from $3.64/day, pre-Buhari - far below the poverty line. Some will say Nigerians do not buy stuff from the international market - YES, we do. We import everything from a toothpick to rice. That is why a bag of rice jumped from N7,000 to N30,000 in 2016. It is selling for N17,000 today. Prices of other items have gone up.
By UN standard, millions of Nigerians now live below the poverty line. UN does not have to tell us we are poor if we live in reality - if you go to the slums, villages and even lower cadre civil servants living in cities, you will know people are suffering and living in abject poverty.
How did naira fall? How did Buhari's elementary school economic policy create millions of poverty-stricken Nigerians overnight? First was the uncertainty he created by being mute with regards to the policy of the previous administration, non-appointment of ministers for months and his antecedent of draconian laws that are not business friendly - many investors hurriedly sold off their asset, bought dollars and left. This increased in dollar demand fueled sudden depreciation of the naira to a point $1 was exchanging for N500. It was estimated that about $80 billion (N28 trillion) left the Nigerian economy during this period (2015 - 2017). Buhari's lack of oversight at the Central Bank of Nigeria made CBN staff work in connivance with black market vendors (speculators) to drive down the value of the naira. Until Osinbajo deputized for Buhari when he was sick that he was able to address the activities of market speculators and plugged the free fall, and naira appreciated by about N150 to a dollar. Because our debt has ballooned again under Buhari and many creditors, of course, want repayment in dollars. It is estimated that one-third of Nigeria's revenue goes to debt repayment - the situation at some state government level (APC governments inclusive) is even worse. The effect of this is on Nigeria's inability to increase its foreign reserve that we could draw for balancing local demand for the dollar because we are spending so much to pay stupid loans that have found their ways into the pockets of Buhari's cronies. Some of them are dangerous loans from the Chinese.
Let no one think this indictment of Buhari's failed economic policies is a praise for Atiku-the-looter. This is to show Nigerians that Buhari's administration does not know what they are doing? I called Mrs. Kemi Adeosun incompetent before she resigned - I maintain the same stand. She failed to perform when she was brought on board. Her inability to see and plug what was going on is an indication of failure of her leadership as the Finance Minister - we know what Okonjo did for us during OBJ's tenure. Perhaps, it is Buhari's stubbornness that made him not to accept good economic advice. Is it not a shame that a country with our level of revenue from petroleum will be home to the poorest of the poor in the world. This is a sign of a total failure of government. You would think this stat will alarm Buhari and his cabinet and they will declare a state of emergency on our economy, instead, they attacked the organization that came up with the metrics that they are bias. Is this the president we want to continue to perpetuate in office? My conclusion is that Buhari is incapable of delivering to Nigerians what they want. His government has done the exact opposite of what they promised, why do we want to waste another 4 years of our lives enduring this mediocrity? The decision day is in February 2019, vote wisely.
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