I just returned from a short visit to my native country, Nigeria. I went to visit my soon-to-be octogenarian mother and to attend to other personal issues. I continue to be amazed by the resilience of Nigerians and the sense of hope people have amid horrible situations. Here are a couple of observations:
1. Poverty has returned to the pre-millennia era. Post the fourth republic that ushered in the presidency of OBJ, the middle class had been decimated in Nigeria. Professors could not afford to buy “Tokunbo” cars let alone new ones, nor could they build a house of their own. I remember some of my professors wore car-tire sandals popular with farmers... The turn of the century ushered in prosperity through pragmatic leadership led by OBJ, despite all his flaws and greed. The last 10 years under the current party have reversed that trend... You can see hunger visible in the faces of the majority of Nigerians, and the middle class is gradually being eroded. People's purchasing power has been taken away by self-inflicted inflation, and governments at various levels that caused this have lifted no serious finger to alleviate the sufferings of the people....
In 2010, a senior lecturer earned about N285,000 when $1 was exchanged for N165. Today, it is N1,600 to a dollar. What this mean is that the purchasing power of a senior lecturer has diminished by 90% (he/she can no longer afford 90% of the things he could afford 15 years ago) while revenue from petroleum, Nigeria's number one export, has increased by 900%. This money is supposed to trickle down. When you consider the devaluation of the naira and how this has positively impacted government revenue, you would think they would at least double or triple government staff salaries. No, they did not. Government workers at various levels constitute the better part of the middle class, and this group drives the economy. If their purchasing power is low, buying and selling suffer, and the economy, of course. Salary ought to be increased at various levels commensurate with the government earnings. A senior lecturer should be earning about N1.2 million now to bring his purchasing power close to what it was at the turn of the century. Buhari's administration remains the worst since the beginning of the 4th Republic. He came and destroyed everything with his incompetence - he zero clue as to how to lead a complex country and economy in the 21st century. Worst was that he appointed several clueless kinsmen to positions where they only earn money and have zero knowledge of how to lead. The current administration has not done enough… They have access to humongous revenue, they need to invest in the people, while they also face infrastructural development to muscle the enduring growth.
2. There are only a few businesses thriving in Nigeria, and most of them are not sustainable, nor do they drive the economy in any shape or form. Aside from Nollywood, the other industry thriving are EDUCATION (schools - from pry to University - you see schools everywhere), RELIGION (Churches/Camps continue to spring up on every corner); EATERIES (more of them have sprung up all over the country), PARTY CENTERS (Event Centers are all over the place now); HOTELS (I lost count of new hotels that have opened in Ibadan since I visited last). These are non-productive enterprises, except education. Nigeria needs more than hotels, churches, and eateries to scale poverty. How do we earn foreign currency from these? We cannot export this stuff
3. The state of intra-city roads has improved, and most of the newly constructed roads appear to be of high quality. I was in Abeokuta, Ibadan, Lagos, and Osogbo; major roads were in good condition, which has eased the traffic situation. Except for Lagos, the inner-city roads and inter-state roads were in a deplorable state. The Ibadan-Abeokuta road and the Ibadan-Osogbo road are terrible to drive on.
4. Police, Road Safety, and VIO are back on the street, openly harassing motorists, especially commercial riders and drivers. They stop you if you are driving any fancy car, looking for Yahoo boys. I was stopped many times, but when they see my face, they let me go, except on a few occasions. These people openly solicit money. All this nonsense disappeared during the late 1990s to early 2000, but they are back, and it is a shame.
One thing is clear, Nigerians at home are ready to explode and take their destiny into their own hands, but they are being hampered by historical factors - access to power, credit to grow their businesses, ease of doing business without paying bribes, insecurity, and strong support for business from government and trade groups. Nigeria is a country that continues to have potential, but the people are their own worst enemies... we continue to support incompetent and greedy people to position of power... Until we find leaders at the center who are willing to lead a true change without personal gain, then we will arrive. The only way this is possible now is if Nigerians of voting age go out and vote during elections... 25% turnout rate makes rigging easy... Lagos could not be rigged as such during the presidential election in 2023 because the majority turned out and voted according to their conscience.
I hope I will see the Nigeria of my dream in my lifetime...
1. Poverty has returned to the pre-millennia era. Post the fourth republic that ushered in the presidency of OBJ, the middle class had been decimated in Nigeria. Professors could not afford to buy “Tokunbo” cars let alone new ones, nor could they build a house of their own. I remember some of my professors wore car-tire sandals popular with farmers... The turn of the century ushered in prosperity through pragmatic leadership led by OBJ, despite all his flaws and greed. The last 10 years under the current party have reversed that trend... You can see hunger visible in the faces of the majority of Nigerians, and the middle class is gradually being eroded. People's purchasing power has been taken away by self-inflicted inflation, and governments at various levels that caused this have lifted no serious finger to alleviate the sufferings of the people....
In 2010, a senior lecturer earned about N285,000 when $1 was exchanged for N165. Today, it is N1,600 to a dollar. What this mean is that the purchasing power of a senior lecturer has diminished by 90% (he/she can no longer afford 90% of the things he could afford 15 years ago) while revenue from petroleum, Nigeria's number one export, has increased by 900%. This money is supposed to trickle down. When you consider the devaluation of the naira and how this has positively impacted government revenue, you would think they would at least double or triple government staff salaries. No, they did not. Government workers at various levels constitute the better part of the middle class, and this group drives the economy. If their purchasing power is low, buying and selling suffer, and the economy, of course. Salary ought to be increased at various levels commensurate with the government earnings. A senior lecturer should be earning about N1.2 million now to bring his purchasing power close to what it was at the turn of the century. Buhari's administration remains the worst since the beginning of the 4th Republic. He came and destroyed everything with his incompetence - he zero clue as to how to lead a complex country and economy in the 21st century. Worst was that he appointed several clueless kinsmen to positions where they only earn money and have zero knowledge of how to lead. The current administration has not done enough… They have access to humongous revenue, they need to invest in the people, while they also face infrastructural development to muscle the enduring growth.
2. There are only a few businesses thriving in Nigeria, and most of them are not sustainable, nor do they drive the economy in any shape or form. Aside from Nollywood, the other industry thriving are EDUCATION (schools - from pry to University - you see schools everywhere), RELIGION (Churches/Camps continue to spring up on every corner); EATERIES (more of them have sprung up all over the country), PARTY CENTERS (Event Centers are all over the place now); HOTELS (I lost count of new hotels that have opened in Ibadan since I visited last). These are non-productive enterprises, except education. Nigeria needs more than hotels, churches, and eateries to scale poverty. How do we earn foreign currency from these? We cannot export this stuff
3. The state of intra-city roads has improved, and most of the newly constructed roads appear to be of high quality. I was in Abeokuta, Ibadan, Lagos, and Osogbo; major roads were in good condition, which has eased the traffic situation. Except for Lagos, the inner-city roads and inter-state roads were in a deplorable state. The Ibadan-Abeokuta road and the Ibadan-Osogbo road are terrible to drive on.
4. Police, Road Safety, and VIO are back on the street, openly harassing motorists, especially commercial riders and drivers. They stop you if you are driving any fancy car, looking for Yahoo boys. I was stopped many times, but when they see my face, they let me go, except on a few occasions. These people openly solicit money. All this nonsense disappeared during the late 1990s to early 2000, but they are back, and it is a shame.
One thing is clear, Nigerians at home are ready to explode and take their destiny into their own hands, but they are being hampered by historical factors - access to power, credit to grow their businesses, ease of doing business without paying bribes, insecurity, and strong support for business from government and trade groups. Nigeria is a country that continues to have potential, but the people are their own worst enemies... we continue to support incompetent and greedy people to position of power... Until we find leaders at the center who are willing to lead a true change without personal gain, then we will arrive. The only way this is possible now is if Nigerians of voting age go out and vote during elections... 25% turnout rate makes rigging easy... Lagos could not be rigged as such during the presidential election in 2023 because the majority turned out and voted according to their conscience.
I hope I will see the Nigeria of my dream in my lifetime...
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